I often find myself following a hunch. Sometimes hunches lead somewhere and sometimes they don't. Sometimes a hunch remains a niggle you just can’t put to rest. Nonetheless, hunches are worth following because you don’t know what you don’t know until you find it and, even if the hunch doesn't lead you anywhere, you will often learn other stuff in the process of inquiring into it.
When you get neck-deep in DNA data, paper trail records and family trees, it can be hard 'to see the wood for the trees' sometimes. So, when I am following a hunch, I find that writing down the process and findings as I go along helps me better understand what I am seeing and what I need to do next. There is no single right way of investigating family connections but, whatever your methodology, writing it down can bring some clarity. It also records where you have been in your investigation should you decide to put it down for a while and come back to it later with fresh eyes.
The key things I try to keep in mind when following a hunch are the importance of:
- Weighing up the evidence across a range of tools and resources
- Remaining objective in my analysis – it is very easy to get caught up in confirmation bias because you want your hunch to be right.
- Staying on task and not getting distracted and side-tracked by other interesting information along the way.
The latter two can be a bit of a challenge at times.
The Birth of a Hunch
HW doesn’t have a very big tree on MyHeritage. Her Mother’s side goes back a few generations but her father’s side extends to her grandparents only. Of the few names there, the only one that stood out is ‘Brown’. ‘Brown’ is my Mother’s name; a common name in lots of trees associated with my matches and invariably of no significance at all. What about this time?
HW lives in the UK so my first assumption was that she is likely to be a maternal match. My maternal family is UK based whereas my paternal family is USA-based. Experience has taught me that it is usually a reasonable starting assumption that a match living in the UK is a maternal match. The same doesn’t work in reverse. My USA-based matches can be either maternal or paternal. A quick preliminary look at the shared matches, doesn’t help; no one there that I have already connected to my tree and the locations of shared matches are mainly UK and USA with some distant ones from Sweden and Norway, one in France and one in the Netherlands.
The person on HW’s tree that immediately jumped out at me was her grandmother Lily Brown. There were no dates and places associated with Lily Brown in HW’s tree. Lily’s husband is shown in the tree as being born in 1891 in the UK. So, at this stage, I assumed Lily was probably born sometime between 1890 and 1900. Based on this very preliminary consideration, I had a strong hunch that my connection to match HW is in my maternal Brown family and that HW’s grandmother, Lily Brown is the person in HW's tree to focus on. With further consideration of the evidence this turned into an even stronger hunch and, eventually a hypothesis to be tested.
Hunch becomes Hypothesis
HW is predicted by MyHeritage to be a match in the range of 2nd cousin to 2nd cousin once removed. My next thought was ‘What does the Shared cM Project calculator[1] at DNA Painter say for 124cM[2]?’
The Shared cM calculator brings up a range of relationship probabilities (see Image 1 below)
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Image 1: Relationship Probabilities 124cM |
If Lily Brown was the same person as Lilian Brown, HW and I would be 2nd cousins (2C). As seen in Image 1 ‘Relationship Probabilities’, the Shared cM Project calculator shows that there is a 12.55% probability that the 124cM of DNA that I share with HW is indicative of a 2C relationship.
The shared cM project tells me that, based on its data, the cM range for 2C is 41cM – 592cM and the average amount of shared cM for a 2C relationship is 229cM. 124cM is, therefore, a little on the light side. This can be seen visually by clicking on the 2C box in the calculator to look at the histogram - see Image 2 |
Image 2: Histogram - 124cM - 2C |
Taking all of this into account, I decided that, although the 124cM I share with HW is below the average for a 2C relationship, it is worth following the hunch … for a little bit longer at least … and so my initial hunch that HW and I connect somewhere in my Brown family became a more specific hypothesis: That Lily Brown is one in the same person as Lilian Brown. This was partly influenced by the fact that Lilian Brown's trail appears to go cold after 1911.
Deciding Approach
My next step was to think about the range of tools and resources I could draw on to test my hypothesis and to decide a plan of action.
Who could be helpful?
HW may have more information about her grandparent Lily Brown. That is, information that is not in her MyHeritage tree. My 90-year-old uncle may have more information than I do about our Lilian Brown since Lilian Brown is his aunt (my grand-aunt).What do shared matches tell me?
Can I expand on the paper trail?
By adding HW to my research tree and working her line back, can I find out more about her grandmother, Lily Brown? What other information can I find out about the Lilian Brown in my tree? By expanding on both my own and HW’s tree, I may be able to find evidence that supports my hypothesis that Lily and Lilian are one in the same person or, alternatively, disprove the hypothesis and find other evidence that may help me link Lily to my tree in some other way.
Testing the Hypothesis
Contacting HW and Uncle J.
The obvious starting point was to message my match HW (Lily Brown’s granddaughter) in case she already knows who Lily’s parents are. This information isn’t in her MyHeritage tree but, like me, she may have a fuller tree elsewhere and just a small one at MyHeritage. While waiting for HW’s response I began to work my way through other evidence.
I decided to wait to contact my uncle J. about what he knows about Lilian Brown until after I have found out what HW knows, if anything, about her grandmother Lily Brown. Also, I thought it may be useful to revisit Lilian Brown in my tree and see what else I could find out about her before contacting Uncle J. … just to make sure I know what I am talking about and could be clear in my inquiry to him.
Shared Matches - Autocluster
One of the Tools available on MyHeritage is an autocluster tool. This tool draws on shared match data to organise DNA Matches on MyHeritage into clusters of matches that likely descend from common ancestors. After running the autocluster tool, I noted HW appears in a Cluster - Cluster 8 - with matches DK, PL and PIF - See Image 3a.
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Image 3a: Autocluster - Cluster 8 via MyHeritage |
With these matches I share DNA as follows: HW (124cM), DK (38.3cM), PL (171.5cM), PIF (86.5cM). None of these matches - HW, DK, PL or PIF - appear in any other cluster. It can be noted that, while HW matches PL and PIF and they match each other, DK matches HW only. That is, she does not match PL and PIF. PL and PIF are not on DK's shared match list. They are both on HW's shared match list.
DNA Painter has a ‘Cluster Auto Painter'[4]. This tool enables the MyHeritage autocluster data to be uploaded into a chromosome mapping profile so that it can be viewed visually by chromosome. When I upload to the chromosome mapper using this tool, Cluster 8, looks like this (image 3b):
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Image 3b: Cluster 8 - Autocluster via MyHeritage uploaded to Cluster Auto Painter at DNA Painter |
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| Image 4: Triangulation Symbol |
I have previously tried to figure out where PL fits in my tree without success.
I do know how PIF connects to my tree. PIF’s grandmother, Mary Ann Brown, is the sister of Lilian Brown’s father, Joseph Brown. PIF is, therefore, my second cousin once removed (2C1R). See Image 5:
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Image 5: Known Relationship - Match PIF and Me - 2C1R |
It follows that, if HW is 2C to me - that is, if the hypothesis being tested is right, then she would be 2C1R to PIF also. The following image - Image 6 - shows this by putting Lily Brown in the same part of the tree as Lilian Brown:
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Image 6: Hypothetical Relationship - Match PIF and HW - 2C1R |
Before, moving on to consider other shared matches, I decided to have a quick look at the relationship between HW with PIF, alongside my known relationship to PIF, to see if the amount of DNA HW shares with PIF falls within the range of probable relationships for PIF and HW.
Image 7 below is taken from my match list at MyHeritage. This shows that I share 86.5cM with PIF while HW shares 45.3cM with PIF:
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Image 7: Shared Match (PIF) with Me (86.5cM) and HW (45.3cM) via MyHeritage |
The shared cM Project calculator[5] tells me that there is a 29.71% probability that 86.5cM is indicative of a 2C1R relationship. The probability of other relationships with a higher probability are only a small amount more probable at 30.14%. Taking this, alongside the paper trail evidence I have, I am comfortable that I have PIF in the correct place in my tree. However, the question this now raises is, how probable is it that a shared cM value of 45.3cM (as shared between HW and PIF) has a reasonable probability of being a 2C1R relationship?[6].
My instincts were telling me there was likely to be low probability given that the amount of cM I share with PIF is almost double what HW shares with him. I was correct. According to the Shared cM Project Calculator at DNA Painter, there is only a 5.21% probability that a match who shares 45.3cM will be a 2C1R[7]. This is, therefore, possible but less likely than other possible relationships. This, in turn, casts some doubt on the suggestion that HW and I are 2C and, more specifically, casts doubt on the hypothesis that HW’s grandmother, Lily Brown, is one in the same person as my grand-aunt, Lilian Brown. At this point, I noted this as one piece of evidence that weighs against but does not disprove the hypothesis that Lily Brown and Lilian Brown are one in the same person.
A closer look at DK and the small tree under her profile showed that her mother’s family name is Brown and her Mother’s Father (DK’s grandfather) was George Brown. No other detail is given. I also noted that DK is a closer match to HW than she is to me. See Image 8:
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Image 8: Shared Match (DK) with Me (38.3cM) and HW (80.4cM) via MyHeritage |
This raised the following question: Given that for my hypothesis to be true, HW and I would have to be second cousins (2C), does the differing amount shared cast doubt on Lily and Lillian being the same person? My answer to that question was ‘maybe but not necessarily’. This is a similar situation to that described above in relation to PIF, HW and me, except, in this case, I don’t know how DK connects to my tree.
There is always a range of cM for every possible and probable relationship and, therefore, an overlap in probable relationships should be apparent. Based on my consideration in relation to the relationship between HW, PIF and Me, as discussed above, I expected that the degree of probability for one of the shared cM values compared to the other (that is, 38.3cM vis a vis 80.4cM) would have one with high probability while the other has low probability. A quick check of the Shared cM Project calculator showed this to be correct. Where they cross over between high and low balances out is as follows: There is 12.04%[8] probability 80.4cM and 18.46%[9] probability that 38.3cM will each be indicative of 4C, Half 3C1R, or 3C2R.
On the face of it, this was evidence that tends to weigh against, but does not necessarily disprove, the hypothesisis that Lily Brown and Lilian Brown are one in the same person. I then decided that, at this stage, this line of inquiry is not particularly productive, and probably more of a fascinating distraction. I did, however, look more thoroughly at the range of probabilities that my match with HW suggests later on in my investigation in light of what I know about my family from the paper trail and taking into account where PIF fits into my tree. See below.
I did note that HW and I are of a similar age. DK is about 40 years younger than us. A connection with DK that entails a removed step or two would not be surprising. What would be really useful is to figure out how DK fits into my family tree. This prompted me to message DK (see below). My thinking at that time was that, if DK’s grandfather, George, is from the Greater London area in general, or the Edmonton district in particular (which at this stage seemed likely) then building out his tree would become an important part of my inquiry, especially if I am unable to find out more about Lily Brown and Lilian Brown.
My intention, also, was to build out any useful trees I find as a consequence of trawling through other shared matches if they promised to offer some insight into how I connect to HW and/or DK. One way to disprove my hypothesis is to show that I connect to HW in some other way.
I briefly considered whether it may be useful to use the ‘What Are The Odds’ (WATO) tool[10] at this point. However, I concluded that using WATO would not really help at this stage because there is only one shared match with HW that I know of so far who is both someone I can place in my family tree and who shares a DNA segment of at least 40cM (PIF). I put this aside but did pick it up again later. See below. My thinking was that, after considering other evidence, I may have more context within which to use WATO and against which to consider the findings with regard to relative likelihood of relationship probabilities. If I could figure out how DK links to my tree this would be a useful addition of information.
Manually Trawling Shared Matches
I reviewed all the matches who match both HW and me and who have the triangulation symbol next to their name. See Image 4 above. As indicated above, PL and PIF are not in the list of shared matches with HW. All of the matches who are in the list share less than 40cM with me and aren't matches with a known relationship to me.
Similarly, only one of these matches shares more than 40cM with HW (80cM). This match is DK who also appeared in Cluster 8, as referred to above, and who is not a relative with a known connection. WATO isn’t a useful option at this point either.
I worked my way through all the shared matches with HW. That is, those who have the triangulation symbol (Image 4) next to their names. This entailed checking their trees and mapping the shared segments onto my experimental profile on DNA Painter’s chromosome mapping tool[11]. As with the matches already mentioned I have used initials for these matches in order to preserve privacy. The spread of segments shared by me with the matches shared by HW and me can be seen in images 9a, 9b and 9c:
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Image 9c: Shared Matches of HW and Me who potentially triangulate |
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Image 9a: Shared Matches of HW and Me who potentially triangulate |
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Image 9b: Shared Matches of HW and Me who potentially triangulate |
One name that did stand out but occurred in the tree of only one of the shared matches is ‘Freeman’. This stood out because Freeman is the family name of Alice Ellen Ratty’s Mother. Alice Ellen Ratty, as you may recall from above, is Lilian Brown’s Mother. This looked promising, as a possible line of inquiry, not only because of the name but because this match (MJM) has indicated in her tree that her Freemans are from Hertfordshire[12]. However, it is something that should wait for a future date.
Figuring out my connection to MJM could potentially add evidence to support the fact that HW and I connect via my Brown and Ratty line but it will not specifically help with the hypothesis that Lily Brown and Lilian Brown are the same person. Also, I share only 12cM with MJM (HW shares only 9.8cM with her). Going in search of the connection at this point, as interesting and beckoning as it is, would distract me from the task in hand. The connection could be a long way back and hard to find. I have, therefore, put it aside for now with a note to possibly check it out further as part of a different inquiry at a future date.
Recurring names across the matches include: Brown (Greater London, Scotland); Allan (USA); Anderson, Andersen, Andersson, Andersdotter (USA, Sweden, Norway); Nilsdotter (USA, Sweden); Watson (Scotland, UK, Australia). The most commonly occurring name is Anderson / Andersen / Andersson / Andersdotter. This is a fairly common name. With the exception of ‘Brown’, none of this information is particularly useful to my current quest – these matches are all pretty distant and to focus on them would be a distraction at this point in time. Again, I decided to put this information aside for possible consideration in another investigation at a future date.
A Response from Match HW
When I wrote to HW, I asked her if she had any further information about her grandmother, Lily Brown. I told her that, upon a very quick and initial look at our shared matches, it appeared that we probably connect via my Brown line. I told her what I know about Lilian Brown and that I am wondering if her Lily Brown could be the same person as my Lilian Brown but that I don’t have a lot of evidence to go on at the time of writing. She was very quick to respond. I received a reply the next day. Unfortunately, HW does not know who Lily’s parents are. Nor does she know much about Lily at all. She is eager to find out. Consequently, in an exchange of messages, she has told me what she does know. Our conversation is ongoing.
Before, moving on to tree building and the paper trail, I did think it would be worthwhile taking a closer look at the chromosomal relationship between HW, DK and myself. The only chromosome on which all three of us appear together with an overlapping segment is chromosome 16 (see Image 9c above). This shows HW, DK and me overlapping with match JAD. I wondered what specifically MyHeritage says about triangulation between me, HW, DK and JAD; and whether JAD’s tree suggested anything of interest, if she has one?
The cM values of overlap are small here. MyHeritage shows a triangulation for me-HW-DV - Image 10:
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| Image 10: Triangulation - Me-HW-DK via MyHeritage |
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| Image 11: Triangulation - Me-HW-JAD via MyHeritage |
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| Image 12: Triangulation - Me-HW-DK-JAD via MyHeritage |
JAD’s tree is not immediately useful. It is not very big but she does appear to have family from the southwest of London (Putney – in the borough of Wandsworth) which may be of interest. Alice Ellen Ratty was born in Croyden, Surrey and her grandfather died in Wandsworth. I decide that this tree would be worth building back but with 10.9 cM shared with me, the connection is likely a way back and hard to find so this is not a priority. As with the ‘Freeman’ example referred to above in relation to the match with MJM, this information potentially supports a conclusion about my connection to HW, but it does not help with the question of where HW and my tree connect and, more specifically, whether or not Lily Brown is the same person as Lilian Brown. Focusing on HW and DK’s trees is more of a priority.
At this point, it really was time to get back to the paper trail as that is crucial to solving the puzzle. The DNA has been useful, particularly in helping me know where to focus in my tree building. However, to progress, it was important to look further at the paper trail and what it tells me about Lily Brown and Lilian Brown.
A Response from Uncle J. and Match DK
After a quick review of what I already knew and could quickly further find out about Lilian Brown, I emailed my uncle J. to see what he knows about this side of the family. He responded straight away. Unfortunately, he was unable to help very much. He explained that he didn’t have much contact with his Father’s family. He told me that his Father/my grandfather, James Edward Brown, had had a bad childhood. His Mother, Alice Ellen Ratty (my great grandmother) died when James, was 12. James was the youngest child of Joseph Brown and Alice Ellen Ratty. After Alice died, Joseph (my great grandfather), became solely responsible for raising James and, according to Uncle J., Joseph treated James badly. As soon as James could, he joined the army to get out of his father’s control.
Uncle J. could only remember the name of one of James’ siblings. That is Alice. He thought that James’ had 2 brothers and 2 sisters. He told me that the eldest brother and one of the daughters died so he didn’t meet them. The daughter who died had diabetes and would have been in her 20’s when she died. Because he could not remember names, he did not recall Lilian. He said that, James’ sister Alice is the only one in the family he and his Father/my Grandfather had anything to do with. Alice married Jack Saunders. He couldn’t recall meeting any of her children and wasn’t sure about whether she had any children or not.
It was at about this stage, that I heard back from DK who, like HW, was very prompt in replying to my message. She confirmed that her grandfather George Brown is from Enfield. Enfield is a borough of Greater London, previously Middlesex (North London). Edmonton is a district in the Borough of Enfield. This, therefore, confirms that Lily Brown (HW’s grandmother), Lilian Brown (my grand-aunt) and George Brown (DK’s grandfather) are all from the same area of North London. Over an exchange of messages, DK was very helpful in telling me everything she could about her family. This included some dates and names in relation to her grandfather, his siblings and their Father. Clearly the connection between me-HW and DK is worth pursuing because we all have Browns in the Enfield/Edmonton area and our chromosomal data triangulates suggesting we have a common ancestor somewhere.Focusing Back on the Paper Trail
Lilian Brown's Family
The information that Uncle J. recalled is right but incomplete. My grandfather James Edward Brown (1906-1970) actually had 3 brothers – William James Brown (1887-1915); Joseph Brown (1893-1978 ); and Charles Brown (1897-1941) and 4 sisters – Alice Maud Brown (1891-1968) who married John ‘Jack’ Saunders; Lilian Brown (1895-?); Jane Brown (1900-?); and Elsie May Brown (1904-?).
William James Brown died in action at Flanders during WW1 so it is correct that Lilian’s oldest brother died relatively young. He was 28. At this stage, it isn’t clear to me which of my grandfather, James’ sisters had diabetes and died in her 20’s. To date, I haven’t been able to find a death record for Lilian, Jane or Elsie May. This is something I am continuing to work on. It is correct that Alice married Jack Saunders. They had at least two sons. Lilian’s mother, Alice Ellen Ratty-Brown did die when my grandfather, James, was 12 years old. Alice’s death was registered in the 3rd Quarter of 1918 in the district of Edmonton, Middlesex (Volume 3a, page 546)[13].
Lilian Brown (My Grand-aunt)
My grand-aunt, Lilian Brown was born in 1895 in Edmonton, Middlesex, England[14].
In the 1901 England[15] census, Lilian is listed as age 5 in the household at 20 Granville Avenue, Edmonton (Borough of Enfield), Middlesex alongside her parents, Joseph (General Labourer) and Alice E. and her siblings: William H. (sic), Alice M., Joseph, Charles and Jane. See Image 13.
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| Image 13: 1901 - Brown Family - 20 Granville Avenue, Edmonton, Middlesex, England via Ancestry.com |
In the 1911 England Census[16], Lilian is listed as age 15 in the household at 28 Granville Avenue, Town Road, Lower Edmonton (Borough of Enfield), Middlesex and living with her parents: Mr Joseph Brown (Bricklayer’s Labourer Out of Work), Mrs Alice Ellen Brown, and siblings: William James, Alice Maud, Joseph, Charles, Jane, Elsie May and James Edward[17]. Lilian is listed as a domestic servant in a private house. The Census form was completed by Miss A. Brown (Alice Maud Brown). See Image 14:
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| Image 14: 1911 - Brown Family - 28 Granville Avenue, Edmonton, Middlesex, England via Ancestry.com. |
Either: They moved house within the same street (from 20 to 28) between 1901 and 1911; the houses in the street were renumbered for some reason; or the number of the street for the 1911 census has been incorrectly written. See Images 15a and 15b:
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| Image 15a: 1901 - 20 Granville Avenue Edmonton, Middlesex, England via Ancestry.com |
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| Image 15b: 1911 - 28 Granville Avenue, Town Road, Lower Edmonton, Middlesex, England via Ancestry.com |
After that, my trail goes cold for Lilian Brown. Given the lack of information after 1911, I did wonder if she could be the sister (to whom Uncle J. referred), who died in her 20’s of diabetes. I have not been able to find a death certificate for a Lilian Brown who died in her 20’s, in the area of North London under consideration. Having said that, to date, as already mentioned, I haven't been able to find a death entry for Jane or Elsie May either. If they married they would, of course be listed under a different name in the death records. I did find a death entry for an older Lilian Brown (see below)
Lily Brown (HW's Grandmother)
I received some information about Lily Brown from HW and I have checked this in the records as well. What we do know is that HW’s grandmother, Lily Brown married Charles Frederick Mirams by Banns in September 1919 at All Saints, Enfield, Edmonton, Middlesex[18]. This marriage was registered in the 4th quarter 1919 in the district of Edmonton[19] See Image 16:
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| Image 16: Banns of Marriage between Charles Frederick Mirams and Lily Brown via Ancestry.com. |
We also know that Lily Brown was born in about 1895 which is consistent with when Lilian was born. We know this because a copy of her death certificate indicates that she died on 26 Dec 1935 at North Middlesex County Hospital, Edmonton, Middlesex from Pulmonary Tuberculosis at the age of 40. Her death was registered in the 4th Quarter of 1895[20] HW has a copy of her death certificate; a copy of which I found online[21]. See Image 17:
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| Image 17: Lily Mirams, Death entry via Ancestry.com |
As an aside (perhaps to be followed up later), I noted that the Ancestry member who had uploaded and shared the copy of Lily's death entry - see Image 17 - appeared, in his tree, to be trying to figure out how Lily Brown may connect to his tree. Lily was in his tree on a floating branch unconnected to his main tree. I noticed, also, that he had a 'Dearman' line in his family. Joseph Brown's Mother's family name is 'Dearman'.
Further Investigation
There are a number of 1895 birth registrations for a Lily Brown in the general London area[22] An outstanding task is to look more closely at these to see if any could belong to HW's grandmother Lily Brown.
While the death for HW's grandmother has been found, I have yet to find a marriage or death entry for my Lily Brown.
Generally, it can be assumed that where the one name, such as Lilian/Lily Brown, occurs across 2 census records in relation to two different households, that this is indicative of two people in two different families. As I have census records for my grand Aunt, Lilian Brown, in 1901 and 1911 which I can be sure of, I set out to see if I could find a Lily or Lillian Brown in a different household in 1901 and 1911 census records.
I found two records of particular interest – one for 1901 and one for 1911. While the 1901 record refers to ‘Lilian’ rather than ‘Lily’, the reference to Nellie Brown in both the 1901 and 1911 census record suggests that the Lilian in the 1901 census is likely the same person as the Lily in the 1911 (see below).
The 1901 census for Enfield, Middlesex – District 15[23] – has a Lilian Brown – age 6 – adopted – in the household of the family of Thomas Farrow bricklayer’s labourer. Also, on the list is Nellie Brown age 4, also adopted and, most likely (but not necessarily), the sister of Lilian? Could this Lilian be HW’s grandmother Lily Brown? See Image 18:
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| Image 18: 1901 - Farrow Family - Lilian and Nellie Brown adopted via Ancestry.com. |
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| Image 19: 1911 - Lilly Brown, Domestic Servant via Ancestry.com |
So the two questions I now have is:
- Do these 1901 and 1911 census documents belong to HW’s grandmother Lily Brown?
- Does this disprove the hypothesis that HW’s Lily Brown is the same person as my grand-aunt Lilian Brown?
Lilian/Lilly Brown
(HW’s grandmother, Lily Brown ?)
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Lilian Brown (My Grand-aunt)
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1901 – Lilian Brown - Age 6 – adopted – family of Thomas Farrow bricklayer’s labourer
1911 – Lily Brown - Age 16 – Listed at 10 Wellfield Avenue, Muswell Hill N., Hornsey, Middlesex, England – in the Taylor household – Domestic servant
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1901 – Age 5 – Listed at 20 Granville Avenue, Edmonton with her parents, Joseph (General Labourer) and Alice and her siblings: William, Alice Maud, Joseph, Charles and Jane.
1911 – Age 15 – Listed at 28 Granville Avenue, Town Road, Lower Edmonton, Middlesex, England and living with her parents, Joseph (bricklayer’s labourer – out of work) and Alice, and siblings: William James, Alice Maud, Joseph, Charles, Jane, Elsie May and James Edward Lilian is listed as a domestic servant working in a private house.
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The adoption of Lilian Brown in the Farrow household could be an informal arrangement given that she retains her name, Brown. Is it possible that Lilian was being cared for in another household in 1901 and recorded by both her own family and by the family with whom she was currently residing? Lilian’s parents are not likely to have been very well off. By 1911, Joseph was an out of work bricklayer’s labourer. It is possible that they required help in raising their children.
In 1911 Lilian Brown is shown as a domestic servant in a private house and Lily Brown is a domestic servant in the Taylor Household. This again raises the question, could these two separate records in 1901 and 1911 belong to the same person recorded in two households?
What leans me towards thinking that this Lilian/Lilly is not the same person as my grand-aunt Lilian Brown is the existence of Nellie Brown – who is Nellie?
Again, then, the evidence, tends to lend its weight to the view that HW’s grandmother Lily Brown and my grand-aunt, Lilian Brown are not one in the same person. However, at this point, it is far from certain that this record belongs to HW’s grandmother Lily Brown. Then there is the mismatch of ages – in 1901, 5 in one census record/6 in the other and in 1911, 15 in one census record, 16 in the other. As indicated above, other evidence suggests that Lily was born in 1895 and, therefore, may have been 6 in 1901 and 16 in 1911, depending on month of birth. Lilian would have been 5 and 15 because she was not born until the 4th quarter of 1895. This may be evidence weighing against the hypothesis that HW’s grandmother Lily Brown is one in the same person as my grand-aunt, Lilian Brown but this is uncertain..
I remain curious about the fact that in the 1930’s Lily Brown lived in the same street as Lilian Brown’s sister, Alice. However, even if Lily and Lilian weren’t one in the same person, there is a strong likelihood they are related and knew one another.
While I don’t think it is yet possible to say confidently whether or not, Lily and Lilian are the same person, I do have to concede that some of the evidence is weighing against my hypothesis. I need to be particularly careful not to fall into the confirmation bias trap by stretching the evidence to fit the hunch. Taking into account the paper trail evidence found to date and the DNA evidence, particularly the relationship probability that HW is a 2C1R to PIF (as she would be if a 2C to me - see images 6 and 7 and surrounding discussion above), I must find myself leaning towards the ‘is not’ the same person rather than ‘is’.
Possible Alternative Solutions to my Connection with HW
Relationship Probabilities
At this point, I decided to review each of the relationship probabilities identified by the Shared cM Project calculator[25] for HW and me. See Image 1 from above, now repeated here:
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| Image 1: Relationship Probabilities 124cM. Shared cM Project Calculator from DNA Painter. |
This review entailed considering how likely each of these relationship probabilities is when information from other sources is taken into account. For example, in light of what I know about my and HW family, considering whether the relationship works given people’s ages, timing of events/ generational gaps etc.
The conclusion I came to was that, in light of what I know about HW’s family and my own family, many of these relationships aren’t plausible and can be discounted. For example, Image 20 below, shows what a half second cousin (half 2C) relationship would look like:
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| Image 20: Half 2C |
On the face of it, there is a relatively high probability that HW and I connect as Half second cousins (Half 2C) - 46.85% probability - when the amount of DNA we share (124cM) is considered in isolation on the basis of the relationship probabilities only as per Image 1 above. However, it is highly unlikely that Joseph would have had two children with two different women at about the same time (1895 and 1896) and called one Lilian and one Lily. So this relationship doesn't work when considered in the wider context provided by a broader evidence base.
When considering removed relationships, I considered the relationship from both perspectives. That is, with the removed step in my line as well as with the removed step in HW's line. Images 21a (Scenario One) and 21b (Scenario b) below illustrate what this looks like for the relationship 2C1R.
Taking into account the cM Project Calculator's relationship probabilities, there is a relatively high probability that HW and I connect as 2C1R (46.85% probability) when the amount of cM we share (124cM) is considered in isolation as per Image 1 above. But, how realistic is this relationship when considered alongside other available evidence?
Scenario One - Image 21a below - considers this from the perspective of an extra step in HW's line to create the once removed step. While my grandfather, James was the youngest of his siblings, none of Joseph’s siblings was old enough to have a child born in 1895. This scenario, therefore, does not work. |
| Image 21a: Scenario One - 2C1R - The removed step in HW's line |
Scenario Two - Image 21b below - considers the 2C1R relationship from the perspective of an extra step in my line to create the once removed step. This Scenario does not work either as Lily is born after William died.
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| Image 21b: Scenario Two - 2C1R - The removed step on my line |
I worked through each of the relationship probabilites shown in Image 1 in this way. After doing so, I concluded that the probable relationships most likely to work - taking into account all available evidence - are 2C, 3C, Half 3C. The relationships 3C1R and 4C may be possible also but the timing that would be involved between generations makes these less likely than the other options but possible nontheless. 2C only works if Lily Brown and Lilian Brown are the same person which, on balance, remains possible but perhaps, all things considered, less likely than other alternatives? In my attempt to avoid confirmation bias, am I being too cautious?
What Does WATO Say?
Because PIF is a known relationship to me, each probable relationship for HW and me produces a corresponding possible relationship between HW and PIF. This was discussed above, in relation to the relationships, 2C/2C1R (see above in the discussion following Image 6).
To see what happens if I then add PIF into the equation across the relationships I have identified as possible, I decided to put the relationships - 2C, 3C, Half 3C, 3C1R and 4C into the 'What Are The Odds' (WATO)[26] tool. This is the easiest way to refine the probable relationships as it will consider the combined (HW-PIF and HW-Me) odds associated with each of these relationships.
As the objective was to see how HW fits into my tree and I know, from MyHeritage, how many cM’s of DNA she shares with both me and with PIF, I made a WATO tree with HW as the ‘target’ and myself and PIF as added cousins using the cM amounts shared with HW. I then added in hypotheses for each of the relationship probabilities I decided to be possible after consider the broader range of evidence available. That is, 2C, 3C, Half 3C, 3C1R and 4C.
This, of course, is still not ideal. The picture would be strengthened if I could add other shared matches but, at this stage, I don't know how any of them connect to my tree.The WATO tree is below as Image 22:
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| Image 22: WATO Tree - Target HW - Hypotheses 2C, 3C, Half 3C, 3C1R (x2) and 4C via DNAPainter |
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| Image 23: WATO - Combined Odds Ratio - HW vis a vis Me plus HW vis a vis PIF via DNAPainter |
As per the discussion above around Image 6, the picture for the relationship 2C for HW and me reflects what I had already worked out earlier. It tends to weigh against the original hypothesis that Lily and Lilian are the same person. It is possible but there is a low probability.
The relationships with the highest combined odds ration are: Half 3C and 3C1R. While Half 3C is possible, I have found nothing in the paper trail, to date, to suggest that William had a second relationship. That is not to say that it didn't happen. The absence of evidence does not preclude that there may be evidence of such a relationship yet to be found. Also, relationships can occur for which there is no official record; a not uncommon situation in the case of half relationships.
3C1R is in the WATO tree twice. This is because, like the 2C1R relationship referred to above (Images 21a and 21b), 3C1R can be thought of from two different perspectives, as shown in Image 24 below:
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| Image 24: 3C1R - Alternative Scenarios |
The scenario on the left of Image 24 is possible, but only just, from a timing perspective. Joseph’s oldest brother was born in 1852. His eldest child was born in 1876 and could have had a child in 1895 but the timing is tight. The scenario on the right is unlikely. William and Johanna married in 1821. Their children were born between 1822 and 1833. There is a 60-year gap between the youngest child and when Lily was born in 1895.
At this point, what I really want to know is how the combined odds ratio will change if I can add match DK, or some other shared match who shares more than 40cM with HW, to the WATO tree. A priority for me now, therefore, is to build back DK’s tree and try to connect her to my tree.
More Questions than Answers
I remain with more questions than answers. What I do know, from the DNA evidence, is that my matches HW and DK and I have an ancestor in common. The most likely place to find this connection is in my Brown line. We all have Brown ancestors from the Enfield area. HW shares more DNA with DK than I do so she is likely to be more closely related to DK than I am.
Is HW’s grandmother Lily Brown, one in the same person as my grand-aunt, Lilian Brown? The hypothesis has yet to be disproved but the current evidence weighs against it. There is a suggestion that HW may fit somehow at half third cousin (3C) or third cousin once removed (3C1R). However, this is based on limited data with regard to matches with a known relationship. More work is needed to have a more rounded picture. If the WATO tree can be expanded further, it will improve the validity of the combined odds ratio information.
In my efforts to build out HW’s tree, I have been unable, to date, to extend the tree past her grandmother, Lily Brown. Is this because the link between her and her parents has been broken? Is she the Lilian Brown in the 1901 census who was adopted and living in the household of Thomas Farrow? Do the 1901 and 1911 census records for Lilian/Lily Brown belong to HW’s grandmother Lily Brown? and/or Lilian Brown and who is Nellie? More time needs to be spent on trying to expand HW’s tree.
Remembering that HW is probably more closely related to DK than I am, I also need to continue to build out DK’s tree to see if I can connect it to HW's and/or my own. To date, I have focused on the matches who appear in the same cluster as HW, DK and me and the other shared matches that HW and I share where they have the triangulation symbol (Image 4 above). Another thing I could do is look at the shared matches DK and I share. Do they offer any clues as to how DK fits into my tree?
I have made some progress with DK’s tree. I have extended it beyond her grandfather George Brown of Enfield but I still don’t know how it fits with mine. It looks as though it may be easier to build back DK's tree than it is to build back HW’s. If I am successful in working DK's tree back far enough and connect DK’s family to my tree, then I will be able to work down again and try to find Lily from the opposite side of the brick wall. If I can do that, I will also be able to add DK to the WATO tree thereby strengthening the picture I have of where HW may fit.
The task remains ongoing ....
Notes
[1] Johnny Perl Updating the Shared cM Project Tool (posted 27 March 2020) DNA Painter [Blog] via DNA Painter [Website].[2] 125cM - The Shared cM Project Calculator via DNA Painter [Website]
[4] Cluster Auto Painter via DNA Painter [Website]
[5] 86.5cM - The Shared cM Project Calculator via DNA Painter [Website]
[6] MyHeritage provides information about how matches match each other. This is useful because it means you can consider how someone may fit in your tree from the perspective of that person.
[7] 45.3cM - The Shared cM Project Calculator via DNA Painter [Website]
[10] What Are The Odds Tool (WATO) via DNAPainter [Website].
[11] Chromosome Mapping via DNAPainter [Website]
[12] Hertfordshire is right next door to the North London area being focused on here and some of the author's Freemans are from Hertfordshire.
[13] Death Registration - Brown, Alice Ellen - GRO Reference: 1918 September Quarter Edmonton Volume 3A Page 546 Age 53 via General Register Office. England and Wales Civil Registration Indexes [Digital Index] London, England via General Register Office [Website]. Accessed 3 May 2022:
| BROWN, ALICE ELLEN | 53 |
| GRO Reference: 1918 S Quarter in EDMONTON Volume 03A Page 546 | |
| BROWN, LILY | RATTY |
| GRO Reference: 1895 D Quarter in EDMONTON Volume 03A Page 385 | |
[15] Class: RG13; Piece: 1264; Folio: 26; Page: 43 (Middlesex-Edmonton-District 21) Image via Ancestry.com. 1901 England Census [database on-line]. Provo, UT, USA: Ancestry.com Operations Inc, 2005. Accesses 20 April 2020
[16] Class: RG14; Piece: 7381; Schedule Number: 8 (Middlesex-Edmonton-District 31) Image via Ancestry.com. 1911 England Census [database on-line]. Provo, UT, USA: Ancestry.com Operations, Inc., 2011. Accessed 20 April 2020
[18] London Metropolitan Archives; London, England; Reference Number: dro/040/a/02/020 Image via Ancestry.com. London, England, Church of England Marriages and Banns, 1754-1932 [database on-line]. Provo, UT, USA: Ancestry.com Operations, Inc., 2010. Accessed 5 April 2020
[20] Death Registration - Mirams, Lily GRO Reference: 1935 December Quarter Edmonton Volume 3A Page 855 Age 40 via General Register Office. England and Wales Civil Registration Indexes [Digital Index] London, England via General Register Office [Website]. Accessed 3 May 2022:
| MIRAMS, LILY | 40 |
| GRO Reference: 1935 D Quarter in EDMONTON Volume 03A Page 855 | |
[21] As per correspondence with HW and copy of the death entry via Ancestry.com - uploaded by Stevio5 and shared on Ancestry.com on 8 July 2017. Accessed 3 May 2022.
[22] GRO Reference: 1935 December Quarter Edmonton Volume 3A Page 855 Age 40 via General Register Office. England and Wales Civil Registration Indexes [Digital Index] London, England via General Register Office [Website]. Accessed 3 May 2022:
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[24] Class: RG14; Piece: 7244; Schedule Number: 115 – Middlesex-Hornsey-District 52 Image via Ancestry.com. 1911 England Census [database on-line]. Provo, UT, USA: Ancestry.com Operations, Inc., 2011. Accessed 1 April 2020
[25] The Shared cM Project Calculator via DNA Painter [Website]
[26] What Are The Odds Tool (WATO) via DNAPainter [Website].
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